Earlier this year Olli Rehn, the Commission Vice President for Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Eurozone, said that “the economic recovery has been gaining ground in Europe, following the return to growth in the middle of last year.” He also stated that the rise in domestic demand will result in an anticipated and sustainable growth with great improvement in growth and external competitiveness from the most vulnerable countries.
The GDP outlook for the EU bloc within the broader European economy has seen meaningful improvement: a rise of 0.1% in 2013 and a projected 1.5% growth for 2014 and 2% in 2015. Within the 18 member eurozone GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% and 1.8% respectively.
The EU economic recovery is expected to get stronger, especially in vulnerable countries. The UK manufacturing index saw an increase of 1% in February 2014 compared to January – the biggest rise in the industrial index since September and ahead of the projected 2014 forecasts. The rise is largely attributed to pharmaceuticals, food, beverages, transport equipment and tobacco.
Chancellor George Osborne put forth measures to boost the manufacturing industry with an aim to improve the UK economy in the wake of a survey conducted by the British Chambers Of Commerce. That survey revealed that manufacturing indexes and industrial investment plans are at an all-time high.
This April’s PMI registered 54.9%. This is a 1.2% point rise compared to the 53.7% reading for March, putting the manufacturing growth index on the up for 11 consecutive months.
There has been a slight improvement in unemployment figures in the UK so far in 2014 compared to 2013, with unemployment numbers falling by 77,000. This is largely attributed to the labour market’s slow response to the economic rebound, according to the ONS (Office for National Statistics), and it seems to be the trend across the European Union. However, significant differences will still persist with unemployment projections for UK, Austria, and Greece standing at 6.9%, 4.8% and 26% respectively for this quarter.
The differences will continue to be the trend of the day with slight narrowing of the gap between the best performing economies and the emerging ones. Latest forecasts indicate that by 2015 all EU economies will be expected to post positive GDP growth rates. While it is important to keep abreast of this bigger picture outlook, investors looking to Europe might consider applying a bottom-up approach to securities selection given the difficulty in predicting economic variables.